South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Mineiro vs. Red Bull Bragantino: 1st Half O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58fbc7257e76e9d5d7260360ec731e458e218f0b7cc060f3ec675908f183c993
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ea8…b821backed Under | 3c | 1,572$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 4c | 562.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed Under | 5c | 538.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…038ebacked Under | 7c | 528.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…0fc3backed Under | 3c | 477.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 4c | 442.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 118 | 17.8%21 W · 97 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6b…96e1backed Over | 43c | 239.26$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.27 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9b…4238backed Over | 74c | 227.61$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…7babbacked Over | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 181.2$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.51 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 56c | 94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 66c | 39.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 168 | 64.9%109 W · 59 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Mineiro vs. Red Bull Bragantino: 1st Half O/U 0.5this page
- CA Mineiro vs. Red Bull Bragantino: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Mineiro vs. Red Bull Bragantino: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Mineiro vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Mineiro vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 3.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Mineiro vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Red Bull Bragantino O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Red Bull Bragantino O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)Red Bull Bragantino won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)CA Mineiro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.