Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Brandon Nakashima vs Kamil Majchrzak
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5917b2239d8c5e86609c418195f83af57752c201364a3abe9dfb40017e68a43f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Majchrzakof Nakashima, Majchrzak
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nakashima | 1c | 3,625$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Majchrzak | 38c | 2,700$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Nakashima | 62c | 2,542$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.59 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Majchrzak | 73c | 1,732$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.99 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…211dbacked Nakashima | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Nakashima | 39c | 1,308$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.35 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Majchrzak | 32c | 999.51$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.68 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Majchrzak | 35c | 997.14$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.14 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nakashima | 57c | 807.76$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.84 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Majchrzak | 43c | 527.77$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.25 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Majchrzak | 61c | 369.38$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.47 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Majchrzak | 57c | 335.61$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.71 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Nakashima | 43c | 328.39$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.15 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Nakashima | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nakashima | 62c | 243.17$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.17 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Nakashima | 63c | 223.88$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.04 | 282 | 41.8%118 W · 164 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Majchrzak | 34c | 217.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.65 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Nakashima | 66c | 207.65$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.05 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Majchrzak | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 650 | 40%260 W · 390 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Majchrzak | 34c | 99.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nakashima | 65c | 74.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Majchrzak | 49c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Majchrzak | 33c | 61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Majchrzak | 72c | 47.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Majchrzak | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Nakashima | 66c | 40.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nakashima | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Majchrzak | 33c | 37.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66e…3430backed Nakashima | 66c | 31.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…126ebacked Nakashima | 67c | 15.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.