Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x592add8ed387af86b53df0dbdcc2a5685fe658a04ef9ee837af2a86c7b1f8d11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 422.65$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.69 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 23c | 301.48$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0728…40f4backed Yes | 57c | 174.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 28c | 173.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 170.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 30c | 165.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 141.83$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed Yes | 25c | 122.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 35c | 122.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 33c | 109.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 28c | 97.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 70c | 97.15$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 35c | 88.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 87.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 23c | 87.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 76c | 73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 35c | 71.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 40c | 68.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 66.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 77c | 64.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 24c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 18c | 59.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 32c | 59.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 45c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 52.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 30c | 51.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed Yes | 30c | 50.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 26c | 50.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 70c | 49.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed Yes | 36c | 44.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…53a6backed Yes | 29c | 37.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 58c | 36.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 34.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 32c | 30.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 29.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ca…7d38backed No | 68c | 29.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 64c | 25.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 68c | 22.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 68c | 21.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 70c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 70c | 21.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 71c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 68c | 18.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 17.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked No | 80c | 15.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…cab9backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C or higher on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.