NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x596d9055bf8d72c3465f03ef919fa62c64593b93c00158d8eae1b76bee106c53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Avalanche, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Flyers | 46c | 9,000$4,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,859.98 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Avalanche | 54c | 6,095$3,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,284.34 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Avalanche | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Flyers | 46c | 2,902$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.16 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Flyers | 46c | 2,846$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.24 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Avalanche | 53c | 2,578$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.53 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…07abbacked Avalanche | 54c | 2,135$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Avalanche | 53c | 1,915$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.99 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Flyers | 64c | 991$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.24 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Avalanche | 55c | 721.82$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…88fdbacked Avalanche | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Flyers | 47c | 446.81$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.81 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Avalanche | 26c | 444.7$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.79 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Avalanche | 32c | 318.08$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Flyers | 49c | 310$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.1 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Flyers | 45c | 306.69$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.68 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Flyers | 45c | 301.07$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.59 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Flyers | 47c | 276.6$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.6 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Avalanche | 55c | 274.76$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.9wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Flyers | 46c | 262$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.48 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Avalanche | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Avalanche | 35c | 219.15$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Avalanche | 55c | 219.15$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.53 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Flyers | 45c | 206.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.7 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Flyers | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Flyers | 48c | 173.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.64 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Flyers | 46c | 171.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.87 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…3332backed Flyers | 73c | 170.08$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Flyers | 46c | 147.19$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Flyers | 46c | 130$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Avalanche | 54c | 112.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Flyers | 45c | 102$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…1218backed Avalanche | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Flyers | 47c | 85.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…6048backed Avalanche | 55c | 69.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Avalanche | 54c | 67.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Avalanche | 20c | 63.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Flyers | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Flyers | 63c | 59.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Flyers | 47c | 57.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Flyers | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Flyers | 46c | 55.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Avalanche | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Avalanche | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Avalanche | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Flyers | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Avalanche | 55c | 49.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Flyers | 45c | 41.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…1b62backed Avalanche | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Avalanche | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Avalanche | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Avalanche | 54c | 35.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…03c4backed Avalanche | 54c | 33.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Avalanche | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Flyers | 46c | 26.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a6…08a0backed Flyers | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Flyers | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…5589backed Avalanche | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 486 | 54.1%263 W · 223 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02df…e29fbacked Avalanche | 54c | 18.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff6…1a0fbacked Avalanche | 54c | 18.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…ca48backed Avalanche | 54c | 18.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7f…3a0abacked Avalanche | 54c | 18.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc410…7688backed Avalanche | 54c | 18.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Flyers vs. AvalancheFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.