NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x659612c5f79ef53c1e00930df4c507efb25b1acb1319d2295c3ecb162d14cc9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Over | 51c | 31,540$15,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,574.56 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 19,288$9,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,452.73 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Over | 51c | 5,146$2,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,521.35 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…6253backed Over | 48c | 2,900$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1be6…67a7backed Under | 52c | 2,900$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 53c | 1,898$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.22 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 1,630$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.41 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 1,076$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.81 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Over | 43c | 900$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 48c | 742.51$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.9 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 712.99$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.37 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8126…9d18backed Under | 57c | 700$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…e4f6backed Over | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 52c | 540$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 48c | 510$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.3 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 49c | 444$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.56 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 431$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.34 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 49c | 382$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.3 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 55c | 368.46$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.28 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 50c | 360$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Under | 49c | 358.47$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.65 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 52c | 319.34$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.28 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 51c | 289.05$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.42 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 269$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.81 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Under | 49c | 209.18$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 265 | 47.5%126 W · 139 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 186.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.46 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Under | 48c | 153.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 53c | 122.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 51c | 117.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c2…cdb2backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 49c | 96.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 162 | 54.9%89 W · 73 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 50c | 81.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 49c | 70.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 50c | 67.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 59.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…5847backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20fd…f070backed Under | 51c | 57.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…2e6dbacked Under | 48c | 54.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 49.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…d510backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4161…272dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Under | 51c | 38.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…57f1backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 48c | 33.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 56c | 30.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 27.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 23.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x851e…8495backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5this page
- Flyers vs. AvalancheFlyers won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.