TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Flyers vs. Avalanche

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Flyersof Flyers, Avalanche
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$581,563
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$653,088

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $581,563 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 442 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Flyers28c100,464$28,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,333.939548.4%46 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Avalanche72c70,072$50,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,451.934365.1%28 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Flyers27c43,183$11,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,491.781,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Flyers28c36,299$10,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,135.4167051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3644…6fdfbacked Avalanche72c30,024$21,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,617.27944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Flyers28c20,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,40048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Avalanche51c18,666$9,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,571.351,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Avalanche34c15,829$5,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,366.866163.9%39 W · 22 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Avalanche39c15,613$6,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,127.9232744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0254…34b3backed Avalanche73c15,036$10,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,976.331376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Avalanche73c11,270$8,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,205.291,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Avalanche72c10,800$7,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,776.243764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Flyers28c10,120$2,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,262.3921036.2%76 W · 134 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Avalanche66c9,885$6,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,474.711,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Flyers28c8,094$2,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,827.6510938.5%42 W · 67 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Flyers29c7,833$2,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,581.5250049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x783c…6900backed Avalanche70c7,600$5,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,338.4710056%56 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Avalanche72c7,591$5,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,465.5910848.1%52 W · 56 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Avalanche72c7,247$5,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,200.542,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Flyers47c6,794$3,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,606.641,10752%576 W · 531 L+63.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Avalanche72c6,393$4,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,608.5561950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Avalanche72c6,000$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,32012947.3%61 W · 68 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Avalanche0c5,800$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.52504.8%12 W · 238 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Flyers32c5,766$1,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,897.093,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Avalanche72c5,630$4,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,056.4545955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Flyers39c5,153$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,152.895853.4%31 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Avalanche72c4,944$3,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,540.181,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Flyers39c4,838$1,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,948.5495049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Flyers62c4,710$2,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.444866.7%32 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Avalanche73c4,450$3,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,248.52231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ac7…e0efbacked Avalanche72c4,167$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Avalanche52c4,153$2,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,141.452,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Avalanche13c4,136$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.6862951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Avalanche71c4,038$2,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,876.441,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Avalanche73c4,000$2,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,92061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb855…90b2backed Avalanche71c3,916$2,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,768.571070%7 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Avalanche1c3,813$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.97450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Avalanche67c3,500$2,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,34526344.5%117 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Flyers29c3,450$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.544551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed Avalanche72c3,378$2,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4324240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Flyers29c3,338$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,372.43650%18 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Flyers48c3,306$1,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,70439344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Flyers44c3,220$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800.7942254.3%229 W · 193 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea3b…fafdbacked Flyers29c3,198$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,267.19450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Flyers50c3,180$1,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.871,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Avalanche72c3,115$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,257.9179350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Avalanche56c3,103$1,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,752.291,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Avalanche71c3,000$2,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,13083652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50be…371bbacked Flyers34c2,920$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,915.52540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcbc…71c1backed Avalanche72c2,796$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Avalanche73c2,752$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0093050%15 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Avalanche72c2,628$1,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,892.093154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Flyers55c2,519$1,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.9352172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Flyers28c2,500$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.9984953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Avalanche44c2,448$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.5434538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Flyers75c2,393$1,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.771,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Flyers48c2,252$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.9757157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Avalanche47c2,180$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.211,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Avalanche35c2,150$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.3622728.2%64 W · 163 L-17.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Avalanche72c2,075$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49411243.8%49 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Flyers30c2,009$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.3848050.6%243 W · 237 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f1…b386backed Flyers49c2,004$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.696347.6%30 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Avalanche72c2,000$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,43062249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Flyers27c2,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,46051044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Avalanche52c1,990$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.6543742.3%185 W · 252 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06c1…c5dbbacked Avalanche73c1,985$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.71145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Avalanche72c1,800$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,29632251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Avalanche72c1,782$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.046456.3%36 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x209b…5706backed Avalanche73c1,774$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.11957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed Avalanche73c1,722$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.994045%18 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Avalanche73c1,712$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25011953.8%64 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7837…40f1backed Avalanche73c1,660$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2121533.3%5 W · 10 L-4.6wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-49.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Avalanche72c1,659$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.5533652.1%175 W · 161 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Avalanche72c1,600$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15243548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Avalanche72c1,555$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.0589249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Avalanche39c1,526$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.3189547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Avalanche71c1,500$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06563249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Avalanche72c1,500$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08091945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed Flyers58c1,500$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.993548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Avalanche33c1,395$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.8399638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Avalanche72c1,358$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.761,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Avalanche38c1,287$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.064323.3%10 W · 33 L-5.8wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-50.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Avalanche72c1,282$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.0461953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Avalanche39c1,114$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.561,38447.1%652 W · 732 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7411…a2adbacked Flyers29c1,097$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.552751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Avalanche36c1,093$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.4889636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Avalanche43c1,045$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.972,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Avalanche1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba9c…d2c1backed Avalanche72c1,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7209853.1%52 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Avalanche37c999.99$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3701,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Avalanche71c999.95$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.9670547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Avalanche16c925$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.6927739.4%109 W · 168 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa2…a20fbacked Avalanche72c870.06$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Flyers29c838.68$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.6393953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Avalanche71c838$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.981,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c36…9433backed Avalanche72c789.29$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5651747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Avalanche72c750$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5401,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Avalanche73c750$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.51952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e92…cd3dbacked Avalanche55c727.91$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40021245.8%97 W · 115 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Avalanche72c703$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.166341.3%26 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.