Mls · resolved market
Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59946071aa9ac6d73ca32c071d87e4c087f65a7178a055399123ad271d3320c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba57…1e84backed Over | 36c | 1,672$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Over | 33c | 1,062$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 64c | 1,023$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.83 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 67c | 827.45$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.35 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 64c | 494.89$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.73 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 426.87$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.78 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…a2d3backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 45c | 176$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 64c | 91.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 64c | 84.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 64c | 64.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 34c | 49.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…df19backed Under | 54c | 49.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 57c | 30.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Over | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Under | 68c | 21.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 77c | 20.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Portland Timbers O/U 2.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Seattle Sounders FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.