Mls · resolved market
Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0b904e6fc09f106b8669510cf097b53a39dc57e6d32218a31aba8fc0533a9da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 70c | 9,611$6,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,852.07 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 26c | 8,833$2,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,278.77 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 35c | 6,000$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,069.98 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 34c | 3,544$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.67 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 59c | 3,258$1,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.26 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 1c | 3,190$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8f…e5f5backed Over | 67c | 2,000$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 66c | 1,561$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.76 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 65c | 1,271$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.78 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 35c | 942.35$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.82 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 41c | 790.44$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.42 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 66c | 632.99$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.22 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 45c | 516.67$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 59c | 426$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.66 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Over | 73c | 344.06$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 35c | 288$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 71c | 219.13$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 11c | 176.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 36c | 139.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb1…b81dbacked Under | 49c | 128.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 41c | 125$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Over | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 63c | 123.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 45c | 119.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 67c | 114.31$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 47c | 110.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 90 | 70%63 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 67c | 95.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8955…3a83backed Under | 43c | 88.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 66c | 75.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 55c | 75.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 67c | 63.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 29c | 52.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 71c | 52.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 66c | 52.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f1…5b7fbacked Over | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 67c | 45.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 57c | 40.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 27c | 38.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Over | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 72c | 32.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 56c | 31.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Over | 66c | 29.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 68c | 28.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…90b1backed Over | 69c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…91b2backed Over | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Portland Timbers O/U 2.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Seattle Sounders FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.