Mls · resolved market
Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d51c4720c4587d1e8664d37490971e69fe6e94da02b763041a81e086c1148ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 79c | 11,037$8,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,268.82 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 19c | 7,912$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.55 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 23c | 1,596$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.19 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 21c | 1,338$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.82 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 26c | 1,009$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.25 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 18c | 530.06$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.78 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 340.35$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Over | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…7a71backed Under | 76c | 154.54$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 77c | 115$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Over | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 21c | 95.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 75c | 92.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 25c | 86.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 74c | 78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 26c | 68.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…a2d3backed Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 75c | 50.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 25c | 47.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 25c | 40.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 74c | 31.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 75c | 30.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 74c | 24.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 74c | 24.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 74c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 80cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Portland Timbers O/U 2.5Under won
- Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Seattle Sounders FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Portland Timbers (-2.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)Portland Timbers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.