Champions League · resolved market
Will Sturm Graz beat Girona?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59af1179e6f756ac10eb3c1d7eb95569d3b80f461c8ddaeca1c162f822666fdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31cf…8834backed No | 69c | 3,251$2,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,251.98 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 21c | 2,158$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.14 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 11c | 1,468$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.26 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked Yes | 27c | 999.98$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.99 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 60c | 918.03$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.22 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 26c | 824.14$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.86 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 70c | 591.4$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.98 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1eed…0c9abacked Yes | 30c | 588$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed No | 73c | 551.34$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.48 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 62c | 322$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.36 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 286 | 39.9%114 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 13c | 190.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…905ebacked Yes | 72c | 181.52$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Yes | 26c | 175$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 26c | 140.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x195f…086bbacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 72c | 111.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 25c | 106.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.03 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…fe44backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa96d…25b3backed No | 38c | 90.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed No | 75c | 73.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…f719backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 26c | 52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb4…9c38backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…63e1backed Yes | 69c | 46.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked No | 74c | 45.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked No | 31c | 39.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1200…a827backed No | 73c | 28.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.50per pick | 65cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b2…d045backed No | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a52…3390backed No | 55c | 21.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 69c | 16.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…7d37backed No | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sturm Graz beat Girona?this page
- Will Girona beat Sturm Graz?No won
- Will the match between Sturm Graz and Girona end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.