Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Iga Swiatek
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59b32e9986c8bb7a2c496f3d6a7b33cac81dc00bccd8abc1da78f8124b1d9bc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swiatekof Kalinskaya, Swiatek
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Kalinskaya | 16c | 2,582$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.12 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Kalinskaya | 5c | 2,231$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.55 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Kalinskaya | 25c | 2,044$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.69 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Swiatek | 78c | 1,883$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.22 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Kalinskaya | 17c | 1,500$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.25 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…baa7backed Kalinskaya | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Swiatek | 71c | 979.05$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.05 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Kalinskaya | 15c | 974.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed Swiatek | 67c | 950$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.5 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Kalinskaya | 14c | 804$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Kalinskaya | 41c | 773.51$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.14 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Kalinskaya | 17c | 604.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Kalinskaya | 16c | 600$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Kalinskaya | 12c | 524$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Kalinskaya | 15c | 470.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d38…fc8ebacked Kalinskaya | 11c | 372.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Swiatek | 70c | 350$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Kalinskaya | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Swiatek | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…f395backed Swiatek | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Kalinskaya | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Swiatek | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Swiatek | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Kalinskaya | 22c | 69.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Swiatek | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Kalinskaya | 23c | 68.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +8.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Kalinskaya | 23c | 68.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Kalinskaya | 40c | 63.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Kalinskaya | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Swiatek | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Kalinskaya | 38c | 46.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Swiatek | 75c | 45.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.