Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Esprit Shōnen (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59f21315fd781363f485c8c7335efb98a0ceb4a8b424d0a0f23e969653509a8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Galionsof Galions, Esprit Shōnen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Esprit Shōnen | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.99 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7af0…509dbacked Galions | 62c | 804.63$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.76 | 252 | 68.3%172 W · 80 L | +14.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48d1…8fe6backed Galions | 66c | 315.56$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.35 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Galions | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 566 | 50%283 W · 283 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Galions | 69c | 291.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 1,663 | 59.5%990 W · 673 L | +98.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Galions | 63c | 278.25$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 650 | 63.2%411 W · 239 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x109b…935fbacked Galions | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 282 | 61%172 W · 110 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Esprit Shōnen | 37c | 220.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 413 | 43.8%181 W · 232 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Esprit Shōnen | 33c | 180.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b3…a28dbacked Galions | 66c | 151.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 180 | 65%117 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Esprit Shōnen | 31c | 110.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 527 | 50.5%266 W · 261 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed1…eedbbacked Esprit Shōnen | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked Galions | 66c | 78.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 440 | 46.4%204 W · 236 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b5…c0aebacked Esprit Shōnen | 33c | 59.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…27f6backed Galions | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Galions | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…7af9backed Esprit Shōnen | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Galions | 59c | 42.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Galions | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 152 | 48.7%74 W · 78 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…cc8abacked Galions | 66c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Galions | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 1,485 | 50.1%744 W · 741 L | +67.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Esprit Shōnen (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Galions vs Esprit Shōnen (BO3) - LFL PlayoffsGalions won
- LoL: Galions vs Esprit Shōnen - Game 1 WinnerGalions won
- LoL: Galions vs Esprit Shōnen - Game 2 WinnerGalions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.