Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a0e4796d38d61898628fc7efaca602d6630b3b4babdc6ca4c9274c1aa3c177f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Over | 37c | 934.63$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 10c | 848.43$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.87 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 619.35$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.01 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Under | 66c | 469.65$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 40c | 455.68$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.36 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 30c | 365.11$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.89 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 71+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 63c | 321.97$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.84 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 65c | 299.97$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.98 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 67c | 295$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.65 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Under | 56c | 283.43$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.44 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 71c | 282.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 62c | 281.63$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.96 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 26c | 268.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.92 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Over | 44c | 257.07$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Over | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Over | 8c | 244.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +260.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 15c | 240.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.45 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 34c | 235.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.78 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e7…51d6backed Over | 36c | 120.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 67c | 120.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 119.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 24c | 108.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.37 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…4e55backed Over | 33c | 78.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 33c | 74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Under | 57c | 68.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 65c | 64.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Over | 52c | 64.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 34c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 22c | 53.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 25c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 35c | 43.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x485d…fc8abacked Over | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Over | 32c | 34.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed Over | 36c | 33.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +80%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed Under | 67c | 16.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e2…89a5backed Under | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.