Asian League · resolved market
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a3db113ae16bb4e6b9b866518c7ba8cb75df27c5e1d0302e123fd241f123978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 7c | 1,489$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.64 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 1,020$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.63 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 32c | 929.28$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.16 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 33c | 882.79$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.71 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 69c | 823.22$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.9 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5392…d2ecbacked Yes | 33c | 606.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 32c | 589.67$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.87 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 31c | 554.56$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.73 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 65c | 463.99$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.4 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 442.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes | 13c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 23c | 296.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 19c | 286.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 69c | 226.08$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 30c | 216.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe8…3684backed Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 69c | 160.85$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…f8c5backed Yes | 32c | 153.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 79c | 152.13$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…148dbacked Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 71c | 135.89$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe42…b3b2backed Yes | 36c | 131.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 32c | 115.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 19c | 102.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…c7e8backed Yes | 15c | 99.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 75c | 94.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 242 | 47.9%116 W · 126 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 17c | 88.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 33c | 60.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 68c | 56.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 77c | 50.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 31c | 43.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…3973backed Yes | 36c | 40.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede9…8504backed Yes | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 30c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 69c | 34.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec74…9e6abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63fc…4a6cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25fa…bdd0backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 69c | 30.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 65c | 25.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 70c | 24.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 70c | 24.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 70c | 24.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 70c | 21.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 165 | 61.2%101 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked No | 70c | 18.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 69c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-17?this page
- Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-04-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.