Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a48de6ac6d143b0485e5dca8ae902f101d802d5497d7a721da8904ee21c50e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 669.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.21 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 13c | 573.77$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.25 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 29c | 438.28$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.47 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 20c | 270.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.24 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 11c | 245$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 68c | 243.96$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 64c | 230.58$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 6c | 209.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.83 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 78c | 209$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.62 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 199.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.22 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 57c | 196.13$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.25 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 186.73$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.69 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 181.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.61 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 69c | 110.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 38c | 108.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 108.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 19c | 104.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.09 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed Yes | 54c | 103.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 45c | 97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…a589backed Yes | 18c | 75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 66c | 68.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 63.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 64c | 63.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 57c | 62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 57.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 77c | 52.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 44c | 48.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 57c | 48.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 45.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 49c | 44.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 54c | 43.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 66c | 40.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 74c | 40.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 47c | 40.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 37.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 60c | 34.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 40c | 34.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 67c | 30.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 36c | 29.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22e…074bbacked No | 40c | 26.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 60c | 26.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 80c | 18.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 17.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 71c | 16.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 76c | 15.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 73c | 14.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or below on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.