Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6060f01ea3875e7b4265da489c48715823922baf508870ea36c5fbf1ceb710cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 1,282$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 1,207$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 12c | 799.24$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 19c | 448.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 17c | 400.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 12c | 311$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 19c | 300.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 16c | 300$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 13c | 207.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…fd8bbacked Yes | 12c | 190.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 17c | 168.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Yes | 18c | 168.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 137.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 11c | 114.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 91.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 15c | 72.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 21c | 66.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 45.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 36.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 28.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 77c | 23.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 16.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 13.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 76c | 13.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or below on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.