Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe54b6345b2207a6cd78bc38da9c939c072366905acc0e18d78e80791ad38bb7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 1,519$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 69c | 634.15$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.49 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 391.71$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 31c | 382.18$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.53 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 262.69$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 11c | 226.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 25c | 216.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 200.63$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 199.76$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 79c | 192.67$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 33c | 188.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 187.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 19c | 183$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 177.34$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 158.68$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 30c | 150.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 13c | 138.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 9c | 137.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 61c | 133.87$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 8c | 126.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 122.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 113.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 35c | 103.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 101.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe22e…074bbacked Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 99.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 98.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 94.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 77c | 88.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 71c | 84.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 33c | 78.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 73.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 67c | 71.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 19c | 68.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 68.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 61.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…155fbacked Yes | 30c | 59.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 68c | 58.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 54.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 53.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 30c | 51.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 31c | 44.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…566cbacked Yes | 37c | 40.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed No | 71c | 35.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 72c | 32.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes | 34c | 32.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 32c | 32.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 30.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 29.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 70c | 29.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 65c | 28.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 26.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 25.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 70c | 25.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…4486backed Yes | 45c | 24.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 23.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 65c | 23.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 23.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 71c | 20.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 65c | 20.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 69c | 18.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 18.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 64c | 16.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 70c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 75c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or below on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.