Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a4f011c683fcc81e0605595ec7e5cf9c8723fa898774169bb6c1032df0f8b64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked MOUZ | 27c | 9,170$2,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,476.12 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 6,876$4,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.06 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked MOUZ | 0c | 5,207$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Tundra Esports | 64c | 4,250$2,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.28 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 2,378$1,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.75 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ | 34c | 1,655$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.58 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9679…9315backed Tundra Esports | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.57 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa257…ea6ebacked MOUZ | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked MOUZ | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Tundra Esports | 74c | 713.45$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.57 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Tundra Esports | 68c | 599.99$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed MOUZ | 34c | 595.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.43 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 35c | 564.42$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.73 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Tundra Esports | 72c | 417.67$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.05 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed MOUZ | 31c | 330$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed MOUZ | 31c | 319.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed MOUZ | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a97…66f5backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ | 36c | 227.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…d2b5backed MOUZ | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed MOUZ | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…95fbbacked Tundra Esports | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed MOUZ | 32c | 171.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Tundra Esports | 73c | 167.47$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d98…b8ffbacked Tundra Esports | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked MOUZ | 9c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb6…546cbacked Tundra Esports | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc0…5f47backed MOUZ | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Tundra Esports | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed MOUZ | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b9…a5b6backed Tundra Esports | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Tundra Esports | 73c | 67.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 149 | 65.8%98 W · 51 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Tundra Esports | 65c | 62.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked MOUZ | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed MOUZ | 28c | 50.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Tundra Esports | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…804dbacked Tundra Esports | 71c | 43.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…04e9backed Tundra Esports | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 341 | 52.2%178 W · 163 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…d774backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 27.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…83b3backed Tundra Esports | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…c62dbacked Tundra Esports | 67c | 15.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.