Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a6adf730024ada535ad2dafd447f9fd7b6b3e99c633872224dc656fb59a2a18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 541.19$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 255.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 19c | 225.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 23c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 132.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 124.62$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 119.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 25c | 115.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 111.68$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 104.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 101.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 80c | 71.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 77c | 65.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 74c | 59.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 59.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 52.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 20c | 52.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898d…f6a5backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…a4febacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 20c | 49.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 25.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 77c | 24.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 76c | 20.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 76c | 19.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 106°F or higher on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 87°F or below on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.