Mls · resolved market
Will Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a6e8bef0311d1a9ff3f58da587109eccabd6b3485efa52c58506603f11eabd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 18c | 4,021$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.23 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…6241backed Yes | 28c | 3,631$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 20c | 3,239$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.22 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 28c | 1,401$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.85 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 1,148$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.44 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 29c | 500$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.18 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 475.84$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.93 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 73c | 344.67$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…491dbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed No | 73c | 147$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x697a…d5aabacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…cf4fbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…e6babacked Yes | 28c | 96.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…27ddbacked Yes | 29c | 95.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…79c2backed Yes | 27c | 85.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 26c | 81.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 73c | 76.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…102cbacked No | 72c | 30.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…b417backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC end in a draw?this page
- Will New York City FC win on 2025-11-23?Yes won
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2025-11-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.