TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$551,944
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$570,473

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $551,944 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 267 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Yes64c198,014$126,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126,689.23785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick59cpaid+55.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2635…5408backed No36c170,333$61,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109,225.171723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-50.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Yes65c68,500$44,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,5253119.4%6 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked No36c50,000$18,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,0002941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked No36c42,004$15,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,862.969053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes64c40,000$25,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,590.8111445.6%52 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Yes78c37,080$28,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,922.131947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No36c27,335$9,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,490.7219153.9%103 W · 88 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed No36c11,303$4,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,233.863050%15 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked No36c9,994$3,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,396.161136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Yes64c9,721$6,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,221.35771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No36c9,409$3,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,021.614846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes78c7,516$5,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,862.3422332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Yes56c6,000$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,36015742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed No37c3,599$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,259.274055%22 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick58cpaid+1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb96a…18d4backed Yes64c3,488$2,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,247.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e10…70f4backed No36c3,220$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,060.639053.3%48 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x571c…c16abacked Yes64c2,781$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7801681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9805…bbaabacked Yes64c2,667$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70040%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No36c2,519$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.1114157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked No36c2,334$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,493.763158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed No39c2,302$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.68560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4944…e4c7backed Yes62c1,700$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0541776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes65c1,538$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003770.3%26 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes64c1,487$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Yes61c1,389$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8506350.8%32 W · 31 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No36c1,351$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.0744749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No42c1,028$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.895143.1%22 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed No38c1,017$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.293330.3%10 W · 23 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-49%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Yes65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6508459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes62c834$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.083,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f8…4dc3backed Yes63c790.55$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a32…6d7ebacked No36c758.03$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.14633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf267…0a4cbacked No36c700$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+66.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes65c618.72$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004963.3%31 W · 18 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No37c599.47$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.6724258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88de…1091backed No37c544.22$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.861526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…f37fbacked Yes78c512.82$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No36c500$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3204141.5%17 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Yes44c458.84$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.8915064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No50c408.12$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.662,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No36c404.53$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.94524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fb5…6530backed Yes65c379.43$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.632360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e2…4459backed No54c369.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.552458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Yes71c355$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1037…413fbacked No38c334.98$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.771866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b59…6445backed Yes64c312.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0909…91cabacked Yes65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004369.8%30 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed No38c303$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.862356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes63c300$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1899621.9%21 W · 75 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed No37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18911036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08cd…2bc1backed Yes50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+67.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbf6…513abacked Yes62c294$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.862454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes74c281$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.089846.9%46 W · 52 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x671f…af9cbacked No37c267.84$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4781…336dbacked Yes63c258.73$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1633876.3%29 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed No37c241$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.832540%10 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd12…c4d4backed Yes64c222.84$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.62633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No36c219.26$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.7925659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed No37c212.18$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.841457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+30.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked No38c200$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4aa4…17c0backed No38c200$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1242853.6%15 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed No50c170$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8133…050bbacked Yes63c170$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x48e3…c148backed No36c161.72$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.51414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdee7…f032backed Yes63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes63c158.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.992065%13 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30a6…12a6backed Yes64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89d1…6448backed Yes64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4ef…88e2backed Yes64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e6…00e2backed Yes64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41fc…f9bfbacked Yes64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c69…9e30backed Yes64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+149%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Yes65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004557.8%26 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcec6…47c1backed Yes65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf10f…004dbacked Yes66c151.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006360.3%38 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked No37c150.24$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7734342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c3…aa7ebacked Yes64c140.63$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No36c140$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.610942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x384a…39c0backed No46c130$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.21369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x57f2…d036backed Yes78c128.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No39c127.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.433151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c53…cba8backed Yes63c126.98$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x471b…d632backed Yes65c118.46$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked No36c117.23$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6410128.7%29 W · 72 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe220…f862backed Yes64c117.19$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751850%9 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked No36c110$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.49721.6%21 W · 76 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5e1…7edabacked No39c106.33$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.861735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7272…7135backed Yes46c99.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked No36c98.19$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.847423%17 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbe8…0fedbacked No42c91.73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9710347.6%49 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x003b…fc58backed Yes65c89.14$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.94650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb4c…2577backed Yes63c84.13$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed No36c83.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.332360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8545…da3bbacked Yes56c81.01$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451275%9 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+40.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9ca…534ebacked Yes62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.44per pick60cpaid-75.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x86e3…8a34backed Yes62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick66cpaid-62.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7fe2…72a7backed Yes62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ee6…1fb0backed Yes62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.