La Liga · resolved market
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a9dfde7bb7e40404c085e7c0720072b9165783b4809941c4393a73e072a2484
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Over | 0c | 10,025$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 1c | 9,504$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 32c | 1,249$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.15 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa580…a6febacked Under | 77c | 1,115$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec7…db02backed Over | 41c | 855.4$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 39c | 771.38$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 650.06$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.96 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 619$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.84 | 834 | 44.6%372 W · 462 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Over | 41c | 273.17$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 227 | 29.1%66 W · 161 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a7…aefcbacked Over | 43c | 179.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 57c | 87.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 74c | 79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 60c | 77.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 112 | 66.1%74 W · 38 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 78c | 57.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 60c | 53.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Under | 60c | 51.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 36c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 59c | 42.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 69 | 82.6%57 W · 12 L | +15.0wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +37%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 59c | 42.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 62c | 40.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 187 | 47.1%88 W · 99 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 33c | 37.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 284 | 46.5%132 W · 152 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked Under | 64c | 34.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 61c | 32.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8b…8925backed Under | 60c | 30.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…a6ddbacked Under | 63c | 29.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…c162backed Under | 64c | 26.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…18f9backed Under | 63c | 20.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…3973backed Under | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cc…1958backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: O/U 3.5this page
- CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5Under won
- CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CD Castellón (-1.5)CD Castellón won
- Spread: CD Castellón (-2.5)UD Almería won
- Spread: UD Almería (-1.5)CD Castellón won
- Spread: UD Almería (-2.5)CD Castellón won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.