Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ab72bd376d19e16798bc76178a64c40fa6f10caba55d0b40691d5333965aab1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 898.14$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…7ce5backed Yes | 40c | 857.03$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.16 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 65c | 413.77$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.11 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 55c | 362.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.33 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…dc43backed Yes | 36c | 260.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 62c | 242.95$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.32 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 6c | 213$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 190.37$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 10c | 158.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 155.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 155.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…06e2backed Yes | 41c | 151.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 24c | 146.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 141.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 63c | 123.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 20c | 87.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 64c | 80.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 72.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 63.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed No | 64c | 50.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 66c | 49.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b3…cf70backed Yes | 39c | 49.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 80c | 46.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…c5bebacked Yes | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…7e54backed Yes | 37c | 40.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 36.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 30.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…e7dcbacked No | 63c | 23.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 21.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 68c | 21.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 62c | 20.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 66c | 18.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…90f2backed No | 70c | 16.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.