Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23786c42ca298698e036923e9fa074954dbad737dcc45dcf479f7aaa9fca857c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 984.92$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.24 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 55c | 362.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.33 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85f4…b3b0backed Yes | 38c | 265$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 63c | 203.11$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 62c | 198.89$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 152.73$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 25c | 150.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 41c | 137.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 61c | 136.15$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 51c | 135.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 77c | 123.9$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 40c | 114.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 108.92$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 40c | 99.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 65c | 90.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 60c | 88.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 17c | 84.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 78.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 78.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd314…12d9backed No | 63c | 56.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 44c | 56.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 59c | 51.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 45c | 44.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 35c | 44.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 40.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 38c | 40.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 39.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 41c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 36.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 34c | 35.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 57c | 32.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…626abacked Yes | 41c | 31.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 64c | 30.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 44c | 30.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 28.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 60c | 28.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86f…5069backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 62c | 27.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 39c | 25.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 24.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked No | 60c | 21.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…4c54backed No | 60c | 20.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 69c | 17.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed No | 60c | 17.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.