Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ac263f9575b6c8dbd266ecacf778665694a78b6cbad0609f44db59407afcb62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b48…4705backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 1,253$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.44 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked MOUZ | 48c | 1,253$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.44 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked MOUZ | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d47…444fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 559.05$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.05 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 393.78$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.89 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 38c | 375.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.09 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked MOUZ | 24c | 359.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.55 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed MOUZ | 4c | 338.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Xtreme Gaming | 64c | 313.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed MOUZ | 50c | 110.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed43…d454backed Xtreme Gaming | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Xtreme Gaming | 62c | 72.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Xtreme Gaming | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa49…6330backed Xtreme Gaming | 59c | 57.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaab…a7c6backed Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 55.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed MOUZ | 39c | 53.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e88…8c08backed Xtreme Gaming | 59c | 50.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ | 36c | 50.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed MOUZ | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d23…b55bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed MOUZ | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1175…7f81backed Xtreme Gaming | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed Xtreme Gaming | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs MOUZ (BO3)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.