Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb76c9949122ce2a02b2653f4ae60f7d3b288fc9ed2a7b50f37a4d80e32d62db3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Xtreme Gaming, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Xtreme Gaming | 49c | 4,092$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.66 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed MOUZ | 48c | 3,052$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.5 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 50c | 2,802$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.8 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bd…efddbacked Xtreme Gaming | 49c | 2,600$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 51c | 1,486$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.1 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked MOUZ | 46c | 1,265$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.36 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed MOUZ | 51c | 978.83$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.83 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 942.92$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.32 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed MOUZ | 58c | 886.28$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.28 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked MOUZ | 48c | 767$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.17 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…889bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 60c | 566.42$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 124 | 56.5%70 W · 54 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Xtreme Gaming | 51c | 542.94$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.93 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked MOUZ | 58c | 527.55$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.22 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked MOUZ | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed MOUZ | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d47…444fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Xtreme Gaming | 55c | 353.04$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.17 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Xtreme Gaming | 77c | 266.71$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.35 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed MOUZ | 51c | 233.41$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.23 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…df3abacked Xtreme Gaming | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked MOUZ | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…2a71backed Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…4186backed Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 180.96$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Xtreme Gaming | 58c | 138.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…873bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…29d6backed Xtreme Gaming | 41c | 122.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Xtreme Gaming | 78c | 102.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed43…d454backed Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…51edbacked Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ | 44c | 98.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked MOUZ | 48c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 86.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed MOUZ | 53c | 84.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed MOUZ | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked MOUZ | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed Xtreme Gaming | 46c | 58.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaab…a7c6backed MOUZ | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa49…6330backed Xtreme Gaming | 72c | 51.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed Xtreme Gaming | 41c | 50.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f5febacked MOUZ | 41c | 48.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 41.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e88…8c08backed Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked MOUZ | 59c | 32.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…3612backed Xtreme Gaming | 43c | 29.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…4108backed MOUZ | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab2…cd4cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 60c | 24.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs MOUZ (BO3)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.