Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Nakashima
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b06c96df69b16fd8a40d539663242808463b418921a70fc229c52f081fa2fcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Auger-Aliassime, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Auger-Aliassime | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nakashima | 30c | 687.76$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.68 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Nakashima | 33c | 518.46$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347 | 308 | 27.6%85 W · 223 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Auger-Aliassime | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nakashima | 30c | 397.82$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.48 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…7633backed Nakashima | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Nakashima | 38c | 162.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.91 | 652 | 50.3%328 W · 324 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Auger-Aliassime | 62c | 159.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Nakashima | 47c | 157.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Nakashima | 30c | 152.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.19 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a311backed Nakashima | 38c | 104.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc104…5faabacked Nakashima | 43c | 91.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…c14abacked Auger-Aliassime | 69c | 52.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Auger-Aliassime | 67c | 50.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Auger-Aliassime | 62c | 36.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 157 | 45.9%72 W · 85 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c12…8e4fbacked Auger-Aliassime | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…43d3backed Auger-Aliassime | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Auger-Aliassime | 63c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d4…8fcdbacked Auger-Aliassime | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Auger-Aliassime | 62c | 23.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecb…e058backed Auger-Aliassime | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Nakashimathis page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon NakashimaFelix Auger-Aliassime won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)Auger-Aliassime won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-2.5) vs Nakashima (+2.5)Nakashima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.