Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79381ecfdfbd2301fe524e0c225fcc20f0d99676b482af0bd258bdfb86c463bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auger-Aliassimeof Auger-Aliassime, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Nakashima | 41c | 5,257$2,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,155.37 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Auger-Aliassime | 59c | 5,085$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.75 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Nakashima | 35c | 1,628$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.79 | 308 | 27.6%85 W · 223 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Nakashima | 42c | 1,209$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.34 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Auger-Aliassime | 38c | 999.98$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.99 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d723backed Auger-Aliassime | 56c | 999.97$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.99 | 191 | 46.6%89 W · 102 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Auger-Aliassime | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Nakashima | 44c | 432.23$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.18 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Auger-Aliassime | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Auger-Aliassime | 65c | 419.54$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.93 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Nakashima | 44c | 402.79$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.23 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Nakashima | 45c | 349.06$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.46 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Nakashima | 44c | 278.5$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.54 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Auger-Aliassime | 56c | 178.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Auger-Aliassime | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 233 | 53.2%124 W · 109 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…87adbacked Auger-Aliassime | 58c | 163.22$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Nakashima | 44c | 154.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Auger-Aliassime | 54c | 135.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Auger-Aliassime | 62c | 129.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…1803backed Auger-Aliassime | 59c | 100.66$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9dcdbacked Auger-Aliassime | 58c | 87.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Auger-Aliassime | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a3…f6a6backed Auger-Aliassime | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Auger-Aliassime | 59c | 50.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc58c…4fc0backed Auger-Aliassime | 56c | 39.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Auger-Aliassime | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Nakashima | 62c | 32.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Auger-Aliassime | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Nakashima | 44c | 29.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Auger-Aliassime | 59c | 18.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 256 | 59%151 W · 105 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)this page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon NakashimaFelix Auger-Aliassime won
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs NakashimaNakashima won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-2.5) vs Nakashima (+2.5)Nakashima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.