Tennis · resolved market
Madison Keys vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b10746c3de8abe2500fcd64febe544de6ae173952fa51c63ec45a1d4ff2ae14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Over 2.5 | 51c | 1,447$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under 2.5 | 49c | 795$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.45 | 6,411 | 54.4%3,486 W · 2,925 L | +283.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under 2.5 | 47c | 399.65$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.41 | 2,399 | 50.6%1,215 W · 1,184 L | +76.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over 2.5 | 53c | 367.92$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under 2.5 | 49c | 186.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.36 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under 2.5 | 62c | 183.11$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 159.98$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 151.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 148.64$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…a45dbacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 139.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under 2.5 | 49c | 132.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 2,575 | 46.4%1,195 W · 1,380 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 48c | 131.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 9,231 | 44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L | -241.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over 2.5 | 35c | 104$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under 2.5 | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 3,204 | 40.5%1,299 W · 1,905 L | +28.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 223 | 59.6%133 W · 90 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under 2.5 | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 3,412 | 39.1%1,335 W · 2,077 L | -11.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 275 | 50.2%138 W · 137 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under 2.5 | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 129 | 42.6%55 W · 74 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…4bc0backed Under 2.5 | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under 2.5 | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 2,142 | 37.3%799 W · 1,343 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Under 2.5 | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fe…311abacked Over 2.5 | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…7900backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 48.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 45.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,809 | 45.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L | -35.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341d…2995backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 45.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 311 | 61.1%190 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dca…da77backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Under 2.5 | 51c | 40.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…e633backed Over 2.5 | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked Over 2.5 | 48c | 39.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Under 2.5 | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183b…b6e9backed Over 2.5 | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over 2.5 | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 18.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 742 | 46.4%344 W · 398 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Madison Keys vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Keys vs. Noskova: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Keys vs. Noskova: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Keys vs NoskovaNoskova won
- Set 2 Winner: Keys vs NoskovaNoskova won
- Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5)Noskova won
- Wimbledon WTA: Madison Keys vs Linda NoskovaLinda Noskova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.