Tennis · resolved market
Set 2 Winner: Keys vs Noskova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34ab39315e1a6d3e517a6fb3ac952a0930d7c51757302d7e04009bf16f20d9ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noskovaof Keys, Noskova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41b4…10dabacked Keys | 50c | 5,050$2,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,525 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Noskova | 50c | 3,439$1,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.33 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Noskova | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Noskova | 58c | 366.26$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.09 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af3…8598backed Keys | 55c | 358.69$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Keys | 32c | 248.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Noskova | 50c | 230$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.34 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Noskova | 50c | 227.14$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.57 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a72…17c0backed Noskova | 59c | 170.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Keys | 37c | 164.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Noskova | 50c | 123.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Noskova | 61c | 116.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Noskova | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Noskova | 78c | 65.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Noskova | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Noskova | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Noskova | 50c | 56.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…7cedbacked Noskova | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Noskova | 50c | 50.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 403 | 50.6%204 W · 199 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Keys | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed Noskova | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Noskova | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Noskova | 78c | 47.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…b131backed Noskova | 54c | 31.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Noskova | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Noskova | 50c | 27.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 391 | 61.4%240 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x631a…a80fbacked Noskova | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2723…d384backed Noskova | 50c | 27.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f8…9aa4backed Noskova | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Noskova | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 295 | 51.5%152 W · 143 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Noskova | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Noskova | 52c | 22.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Noskova | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 275 | 50.2%138 W · 137 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf63b…222cbacked Noskova | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -50%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 2 Winner: Keys vs Noskovathis page
- Keys vs. Noskova: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Keys vs. Noskova: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Madison Keys vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Keys vs NoskovaNoskova won
- Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5)Noskova won
- Wimbledon WTA: Madison Keys vs Linda NoskovaLinda Noskova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.