Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Noskova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7165e91b7d9ddac188c1a7e309145da30dc80d0f465e9e913c4f3e6fffec6aea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noskovaof Keys, Noskova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Keys | 50c | 1,996$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.95 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Noskova | 47c | 1,589$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.04 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Keys | 56c | 1,249$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 385 | 57.1%220 W · 165 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Noskova | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe28c…ffb3backed Keys | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Keys | 53c | 798.06$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.15 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa981…ab19backed Keys | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…ca87backed Keys | 2c | 599.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Keys | 56c | 494$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.64 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Noskova | 44c | 494$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.64 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Keys | 52c | 472.81$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.86 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbb…3ec7backed Keys | 57c | 363.46$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.17 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Noskova | 38c | 318.27$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.33 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a72…17c0backed Noskova | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Noskova | 44c | 248.77$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Noskova | 43c | 228.4$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.19 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Noskova | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Keys | 52c | 137.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Noskova | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…4036backed Noskova | 42c | 119.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2b…0900backed Noskova | 47c | 103.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Noskova | 53c | 84.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…a806backed Noskova | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Keys | 57c | 79.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Noskova | 55c | 72.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2819…c2fcbacked Noskova | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x831f…cc50backed Keys | 50c | 59.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 218 | 41.3%90 W · 128 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…9db6backed Noskova | 54c | 56.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…3c88backed Noskova | 42c | 52.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Keys | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Noskova | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Keys | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Noskova | 38c | 27.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Keys | 52c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…bfdfbacked Keys | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 181 | 47%85 W · 96 L | -24.1wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Noskovathis page
- Keys vs. Noskova: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Keys vs. Noskova: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Madison Keys vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 2 Winner: Keys vs NoskovaNoskova won
- Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5)Noskova won
- Wimbledon WTA: Madison Keys vs Linda NoskovaLinda Noskova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.