NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b184b1a2a442dbd97a784c73e3e2ec1a8cd376c7829bb4f9ae338a767c107ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 51c | 3,659$1,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.09 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 3,593$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760.45 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 52c | 2,037$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.78 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 56c | 1,478$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.81 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 407.64$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.2 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Under | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 349$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.18 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed Under | 48c | 301$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.48 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 35c | 300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.25 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18fc…2eb8backed Over | 50c | 216$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…0586backed Under | 50c | 204$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3d…f943backed Over | 50c | 202$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -8.0wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe3dc…29b6backed Over | 50c | 198$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…019fbacked Under | 50c | 191$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2c…15ccbacked Under | 50c | 187$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb5…a173backed Over | 50c | 186$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322f…fa6dbacked Over | 50c | 184$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b3…3f82backed Over | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8187…abd8backed Under | 50c | 173$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…3d9ebacked Under | 50c | 171$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 50c | 170$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7477…64cfbacked Under | 50c | 169$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 63c | 159$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 127.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…f999backed Under | 39c | 116.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Over | 59c | 114.53$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Under | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Under | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…1ec7backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 47c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 51c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5210backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…5183backed Under | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5this page
- Ducks vs. IslandersIslanders won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Islanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.