NHL · resolved market
Spread: Islanders (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c45b5de3324b79a9f0502dae425b175bf316d65b9774d20a676bf5a2cabc846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Islandersof Islanders, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9e6…025bbacked Islanders | 34c | 20,771$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,770.86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Ducks | 66c | 10,839$7,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,153.71 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ducks | 67c | 2,659$1,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,768.12 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Ducks | 67c | 2,238$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.46 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ducks | 66c | 1,988$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.08 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Ducks | 10c | 1,250$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.13 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Ducks | 67c | 836$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.12 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ducks | 66c | 641$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.06 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Ducks | 62c | 550$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.5 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Islanders | 31c | 234.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.85 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Ducks | 67c | 223$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.41 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Islanders | 65c | 209.17$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b86…4670backed Islanders | 32c | 164$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x583b…67f2backed Islanders | 32c | 162$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Ducks | 69c | 152.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Islanders | 31c | 152.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e30…f399backed Islanders | 32c | 152$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…a2b6backed Ducks | 68c | 152$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa8…f60cbacked Ducks | 68c | 149$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbe…7481backed Ducks | 68c | 147$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Islanders | 33c | 147$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…f223backed Islanders | 32c | 144$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Ducks | 67c | 140$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8b…cd37backed Ducks | 68c | 129$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ff…f3f3backed Ducks | 71c | 98.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Ducks | 67c | 89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Ducks | 47c | 83.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Ducks | 35c | 80.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Ducks | 69c | 72.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeac8…bca4backed Ducks | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Ducks | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…8df0backed Ducks | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Islanders | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Ducks | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Ducks | 65c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Ducks | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x795f…1871backed Islanders | 33c | 34.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Ducks | 67c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Ducks | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…58b0backed Ducks | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Ducks | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Ducks | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Ducks | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Ducks | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Ducks | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Ducks | 67c | 18.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…532bbacked Ducks | 69c | 18.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Islanders | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Islanders | 74c | 17.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Ducks | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 231 | 44.6%103 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Ducks | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Ducks | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Ducks | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 175 | 52%91 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Ducks | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Ducks | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Ducks | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Ducks | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Ducks | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 190 | 46.8%89 W · 101 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Ducks | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Ducks | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed Ducks | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…f988backed Ducks | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…974fbacked Ducks | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a82…a736backed Ducks | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Ducks | 68c | 14.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)this page
- Ducks vs. IslandersIslanders won
- Ducks vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.