MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b34352118887e8ee57a0b2bcd743d171efe9b2c28993fb757a96180a3c66ebb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 46c | 974.5$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.27 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 972.4$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 235.32$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Over | 47c | 226.53$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 35c | 167.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 43c | 163.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 157.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 56c | 113.64$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Over | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 106.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 56c | 102.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…5e8ebacked Under | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 80.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 56c | 51.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…2775backed Under | 57c | 48.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Over | 45c | 44.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 57c | 42.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 34.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 58c | 31.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…b579backed Over | 43c | 30.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 59c | 29.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 61c | 26.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Under | 56c | 26.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 303 | 50.8%154 W · 149 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 61c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9f…0f61backed Under | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles AngelsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.