MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4c9a4cd3be08692f4dc6f8e4faad5006975fbfabd96943e154b1ec445a5978c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 44c | 112,945$49,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63,267.08 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 52,543$29,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,423.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 23,531$13,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,106.14 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 56c | 15,108$8,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,404.69 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 56c | 7,506$4,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,176.07 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 56c | 6,820$3,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,819.43 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 56c | 3,318$1,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,858.1 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 2,117$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.03 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 57c | 1,860$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.13 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 1,769$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.82 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 57c | 1,433$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.21 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 49c | 972.55$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 48c | 923.45$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.94 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 56c | 858.26$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.62 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 53c | 790.17$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.8 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 55c | 495.1$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.31 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 56c | 476.83$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 56c | 475.05$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.9 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 44c | 453.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.96 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a601backed Over | 51c | 380.63$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 56c | 299.07$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.28 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 19c | 294.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Over | 56c | 292.08$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.56 | 609 | 41.4%252 W · 357 L | -22.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…596dbacked Over | 55c | 273.59$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.83 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 49c | 269.51$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.45 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 53c | 244.48$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.98 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Over | 56c | 233.39$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.15 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 51c | 197.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.78 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 51c | 191.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.75 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 54c | 182.75$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 47c | 179.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.19 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 42c | 175.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 56c | 174.27$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.35 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 159.03$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 40c | 133.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked Under | 47c | 105.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Over | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 27c | 93.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 50c | 65.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 56c | 65.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 45c | 54.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Under | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Under | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Under | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 46c | 48.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 31c | 47.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 56c | 47.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 49c | 44.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 48c | 38.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…8a8ebacked Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 56c | 34.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 54c | 34.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Over | 57c | 34.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 56c | 33.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Over | 56c | 31.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 55c | 30.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Under | 44c | 28.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Under | 49c | 28.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Over | 52c | 27.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 45c | 25.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 24.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 47c | 24.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 55c | 23.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Over | 56c | 22.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Over | 54c | 18.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles AngelsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.