Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b5f1d50d5fbf294a50ff6f7a50040aabdd7ea76cfc51d9542816afdaa3b21ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grind Backof REKONIX, Grind Back
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Grind Back | 61c | 3,506$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.3 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed REKONIX | 39c | 2,565$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked Grind Back | 54c | 942.25$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.11 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…33d5backed Grind Back | 61c | 499.98$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked REKONIX | 41c | 443.09$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.72 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…73c7backed REKONIX | 47c | 423.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed REKONIX | 40c | 377.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked REKONIX | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 281 | 45.6%128 W · 153 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Grind Back | 54c | 273.97$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.45 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Grind Back | 50c | 239.98$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.81 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…f4dfbacked REKONIX | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed REKONIX | 42c | 223.93$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed REKONIX | 39c | 210.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Grind Back | 55c | 200$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Grind Back | 68c | 162.81$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked REKONIX | 45c | 161.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8106…bd36backed REKONIX | 48c | 158.27$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed REKONIX | 50c | 150.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf1…3018backed REKONIX | 44c | 145.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeab…fd91backed REKONIX | 43c | 140.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a12…a9a7backed REKONIX | 39c | 138$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked REKONIX | 39c | 131.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Grind Back | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…27f6backed REKONIX | 40c | 100.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked REKONIX | 31c | 90.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed REKONIX | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed REKONIX | 42c | 71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed REKONIX | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed Grind Back | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed REKONIX | 39c | 32.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Grind Back | 60c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Grind Back | 61c | 31.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed REKONIX | 37c | 31.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Grind Back | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsGrind Back won
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 WinnerGrind Back won
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 WinnerGrind Back won
- Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5)Grind Back won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.