MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b711f43ca340ba626ecc87f4446fe3bfa7e1117f5fa2880c6998fa5726c4652
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Atlanta Braves, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7239…6591backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 5,055$2,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,931.64 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Atlanta Braves | 54c | 4,500$2,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,445 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Atlanta Braves | 54c | 3,965$2,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,141.1 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Atlanta Braves | 56c | 3,432$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,934.99 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 3,333$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.82 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 2,955$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.55 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 2,819$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598.8 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 2,640$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.38 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 1,307$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.99 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 992.23$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.08 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.67 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6369…feb1backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 600$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Atlanta Braves | 55c | 545.06$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.95 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 451.33$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.15 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 393.98$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.57 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ee…3b13backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 307.65$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Atlanta Braves | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 299.83$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Atlanta Braves | 10c | 294.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d5…31c3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 290.7$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 249.51$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.29 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 208.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.83 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Atlanta Braves | 57c | 182.4$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.97 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 180.96$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.15 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1509…0211backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 170$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4316…7a37backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 132$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e33…ce38backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 119$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 111.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 182 | 36.3%66 W · 116 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 101.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Atlanta Braves | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 98.51$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ac…df85backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 72.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 67.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…395abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 62.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 50.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Atlanta Braves | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…c7a4backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Atlanta Braves | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Atlanta Braves | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.