World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal party lead by 6-7% on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ba4e07b321ccaf3f743c733d9110c122de8bb3bac6de0fa5f5fcb24af0771fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 33c | 760.44$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.08 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 400$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 29c | 278$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 24c | 252$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.52 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 35c | 230$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.84 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…4a8dbacked Yes | 35c | 228$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 38c | 199.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.92 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 133.21$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.77 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 71c | 128$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41d…c563backed Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 28c | 73.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 75c | 41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 58c | 34.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal party lead by 6-7% on April 18?this page
- Will the Liberal party lead by 4-5% on April 18?No won
- Will the Liberal party lead by 5-6% on April 18?No won
- Will the Liberal party lead by 7-8% on April 18?No won
- Will the Liberal party lead by 8-9% on April 18?No won
- Will the Liberal party lead by less than 4% on April 18?No won
- Will the Liberal party lead by more than 10% on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.