MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5baf99087db1fbcd2a885b4522a9375d8ba6897b3e3a67dc01b15dd39545a774
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Cincinnati Reds, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 5,667$2,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,311.84 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 4,972$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants | 65c | 2,233$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.11 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 2,183$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.88 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 1,362$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.58 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059e…54d1backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 1,152$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.12 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 1,096$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.77 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 999.97$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 871.28$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.51 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 650.14$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.55 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 640.61$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.32 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked San Francisco Giants | 65c | 387.31$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.72 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 355.49$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.54 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 192.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 162.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 156.49$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 131.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 118$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 112.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 88.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 88.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 88.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 88.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 88.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 88.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 126 | 56.3%71 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 75.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 74.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…02d6backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 68.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 65.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 62.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 62.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked San Francisco Giants | 78c | 58.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 49.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 47.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 40.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 39.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 37.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 37.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 37.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 34.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked San Francisco Giants | 58c | 26.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…faabbacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 19.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 71c | 15.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati RedsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 3.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.