MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4c1c7527690193dd869c962436621ce15d06dba558e53c6b24776fdfd8424e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x796c…f03cbacked Over | 0c | 15,012$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8a…990dbacked Over | 0c | 14,969$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…c9a5backed Over | 0c | 12,910$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 665.35$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 488.78$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.46 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 371.83$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.39 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 66c | 267.68$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed Over | 50c | 243.16$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.24 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 56c | 221.15$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Over | 40c | 114.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 80c | 69.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 54c | 54.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac9…f5ddbacked Under | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fce…6476backed Under | 52c | 19.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 3.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati RedsSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.