MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5beb2fee7267c3db255ec92e24c2b8ecb8583c9d41a16b1f9313ba07277925f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 41,671$33,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,511.75 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 19c | 16,047$2,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,979.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 21c | 13,230$2,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,843.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 22c | 6,996$1,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,567.84 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 23c | 3,980$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Mets | 23c | 716.11$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.22 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 37c | 450.13$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.57 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Mets | 37c | 334.52$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.08 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 206.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Mets | 37c | 202.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…b2ddbacked New York Mets | 24c | 184.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed New York Mets | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…594bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73cc…c092backed New York Mets | 41c | 155.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 147.12$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed New York Mets | 23c | 84.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed New York Mets | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0a…75acbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 465 | 46%214 W · 251 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 61.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed New York Mets | 25c | 56.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Mets | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed New York Mets | 37c | 48.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Mets | 38c | 48.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed New York Mets | 24c | 47.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed New York Mets | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 39.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed New York Mets | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 22.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d9…6b54backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.