MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0676733e4af427c31fac90b8cb442fcf3f0df4dcc10bdb749c8b679320393fa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc92…649dbacked Under | 45c | 3,182$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 2,086$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 1,762$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.17 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 48c | 1,736$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.42 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 55c | 1,632$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.48 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 1,559$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 49c | 1,037$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.14 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 55c | 455.39$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.09 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 48c | 345.47$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.14 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 56c | 308.75$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.85 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 41c | 298.89$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Over | 30c | 230.42$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.15 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 50c | 217.59$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 53c | 161.25$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.34 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 44c | 146.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.09 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 41c | 107.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 60c | 66.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 45c | 55.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…2161backed Over | 39c | 46.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Over | 34c | 44.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 40c | 41.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 38c | 32.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29cb…1cb7backed Under | 59c | 28.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 41c | 28.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 53c | 27.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 48c | 27.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Over | 46c | 27.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 51c | 22.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…5c16backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.