Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bec009ec64c1f1befd32d9ccbcb8914bfb0a20cd36d85fe38c2426860c59109
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 25c | 662.13$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.09 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 73c | 654.81$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.64 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 586.09$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 30c | 498.26$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.71 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 10c | 304.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 30c | 259.07$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…8593backed Yes | 9c | 194.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 20c | 187.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 79c | 186.2$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x902b…6e29backed No | 66c | 177$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 169.59$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 27c | 150.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 20c | 143.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 132.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 28c | 130$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 33c | 121.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0aa…e8aebacked No | 79c | 114.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed Yes | 19c | 108.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 22c | 95.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 67c | 90.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 18c | 82.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 80.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 30c | 79.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 79.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 78.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 26c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 64.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 62.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 22c | 55.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 76c | 51.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…5ae8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 48.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…a4febacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 48.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 43.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 69c | 43.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…8c79backed Yes | 25c | 39.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea7…e13fbacked Yes | 28c | 37.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 37.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 67c | 30.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0253…bcadbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…ab06backed No | 77c | 27.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 22.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 20.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…4e25backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ae…d53dbacked No | 70c | 14.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf765…9b7dbacked No | 77c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0f…229abacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 80cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.