TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,311
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,515

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,311 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes1c2,143$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2541845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5154…aa32backed Yes1c871.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.971952.6%10 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick36cpaid+21.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes17c862.7$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.2212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes11c388.95$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.033,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes9c372.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.942,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3016…54e9backed Yes19c367.55$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1913614.7%20 W · 116 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes19c343.03$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.531,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a0…b85dbacked Yes30c334.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes5c332.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.512,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes19c326.35$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.241,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f6…ae14backed No63c316.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.7711663.8%74 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1512…079bbacked No64c310.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.513070%21 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+30.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ecf…c85dbacked Yes11c307.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.994311.6%5 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed No66c305.28$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.2816134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes21c305.11$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5334918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No80c296$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.345,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes6c279.01$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5111515.7%18 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes15c275.06$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1331219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes35c263.82$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4228737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes8c256.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2052935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes15c226.42$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes7c221.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4393034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes29c218.12$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.621,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes13c207.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.392,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2081234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes33c199.34$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7828441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes21c183.9$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0417831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes28c182.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.381,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes6c166.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6522236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes8c164.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.849854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3822…e667backed Yes8c161.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.42348.8%3 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes16c156.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No77c151.05$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1167158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes23c148.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.33,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes13c144.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.476,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes31c142.35$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2121236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes32c140$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No73c137.34$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3432872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5833373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No70c130.55$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6165353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7355…a4febacked Yes37c120.87$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452025%5 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes14c115.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3948919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes22c108.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.965,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes34c102.6$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No75c101.31$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.052,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes29c99.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes35c80.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0456543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2429…7b51backed No75c77.34$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.142365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick63cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No72c74.79$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No69c74.71$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9865965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeadb…898ebacked Yes36c69.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.282133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No66c69.05$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3998565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0941…b254backed Yes27c68.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5211935.3%42 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes32c64.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.732,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe85e…79febacked Yes30c64.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.083253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes28c62.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.418837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No73c62$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.584,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No64c59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2427669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No62c52.87$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.878,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafb8…7451backed Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209335.5%33 W · 60 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c50.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.279,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc018…b251backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1311138.7%43 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x073e…453fbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134537.8%17 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c4a…31e3backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134654.3%25 W · 21 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes34c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1754232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No77c49.53$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3189661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No68c48.13$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.384,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27a…78d8backed No64c46.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8824942.6%106 W · 143 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x445f…cc13backed Yes37c45.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.846540%26 W · 39 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No66c45.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3346667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51d9…b0aebacked No67c45.04$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.862070%14 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4885…2236backed Yes29c40.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.597047.1%33 W · 37 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes32c39.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.414,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes33c38.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6925536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No79c34.67$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.162,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ea7…e13fbacked Yes31c34.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.565925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No76c32.07$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.672,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No73c30.19$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.022,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0253…bcadbacked Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.42445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x177b…6e61backed No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.212458.1%72 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7164…24fabacked No71c29.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.77550.7%38 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No70c29.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7648149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No71c28.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.172,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf06e…291bbacked No74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.03333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No70c25.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.773,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No63c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3479255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No74c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.53,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No72c21.65$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.062,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No69c20.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.412,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No69c20.32$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.32,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f5d…3384backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.228270.2%198 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x746d…2db5backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.67467.6%50 W · 24 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick73cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No73c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1371464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No79c16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.362,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x607c…aadbbacked No64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.632369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick65cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.225766.1%170 W · 87 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.