Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on December 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5becda581cb43773a7940868a98510580be75d9227ae44c9ad832de426ff4de6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6842…3eb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,163$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 8c | 569.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 39c | 470.31$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.96 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49df…d594backed Yes | 4c | 423.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 6c | 360.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 10c | 338.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…806ebacked Yes | 13c | 312.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 13c | 230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…04b5backed No | 47c | 201$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…a44fbacked Yes | 53c | 192$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 58c | 171.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 162$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 64c | 155.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 61c | 125$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 45c | 108.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 53c | 102.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…637ebacked Yes | 47c | 99.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 51c | 93.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…49edbacked No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 51c | 77.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…0fa0backed Yes | 60c | 75.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…a1d6backed No | 47c | 74.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 50c | 70.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…b139backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…2ed9backed No | 38c | 57.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 50c | 52.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 49c | 51.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…5cbfbacked Yes | 65c | 50.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 42c | 49.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 39c | 47.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 41c | 45.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 56c | 44.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df2…21e5backed Yes | 53c | 37.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf665…069ebacked Yes | 67c | 36.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…d040backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…4e7fbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa56f…7c77backed Yes | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on December 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 48°F or below on December 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or higher on December 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on December 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on December 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on December 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.