Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on December 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a6585c59871d8f7a5c575d9c17af5678c284ae8987ec43d8d158a12018537d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x476f…8dc2backed Yes | 24c | 1,450$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b29…f4b0backed No | 76c | 730$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc202…833ebacked No | 76c | 720$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 35c | 710.23$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 62c | 412.65$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.7 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 3c | 375.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…bb67backed Yes | 33c | 334.71$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.39 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 71c | 328.89$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.01 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 41c | 263.52$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.26 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed No | 71c | 244.99$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.89 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 49c | 229.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.77 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 64c | 200$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 49c | 179.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.92 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…3450backed Yes | 28c | 149$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f2…ea15backed No | 72c | 144$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d9…a4d1backed Yes | 29c | 135$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6857…7f23backed Yes | 28c | 132$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf464…a89bbacked No | 71c | 130$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x281f…acfdbacked Yes | 27c | 127$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d5…f618backed No | 72c | 125$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535a…58e8backed Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +192.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x277e…1cfabacked No | 75c | 119$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…f708backed No | 73c | 112$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 30c | 86.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…2f5cbacked No | 72c | 80.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 72c | 70.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 26c | 68.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…b139backed No | 40c | 68.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…748cbacked Yes | 53c | 58.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…d040backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 53.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 60c | 49.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 40c | 49.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 39c | 42.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 60c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 67c | 38.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 56c | 37.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 38c | 31.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…aa3abacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf8…ea97backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on December 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 48°F or below on December 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 59°F or higher on December 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on December 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on December 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on December 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.