Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C or below on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bed0e4e06158d855a55f07c0015c4d82f9405041f32c769cbb64d0f67046f89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 5,003$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 4c | 4,373$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.06 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 2,373$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 5c | 2,336$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,452$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,417$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,223$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 9c | 716.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 4c | 710.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 2c | 700.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c2…1bfabacked Yes | 3c | 373.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 5c | 359.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 4c | 339.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb77b…bac9backed Yes | 3c | 295$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 254.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 7c | 214.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 17c | 192.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 183.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…979ebacked Yes | 12c | 149.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 16c | 147.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5e…29bebacked Yes | 17c | 80.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b65…c37dbacked Yes | 24c | 49.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…87b0backed No | 75c | 32.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 76c | 32.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…81ebbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 53c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 68c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C or below on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.