F1 · resolved market
F1 Austrian Grand Prix: Red Bull vs. Mercedes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bf68a8712aaaa6bbcb58134e9b8b75a2ddc55dfc1f7b1f0e0864640d07bd830
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercedesof Red Bull, Mercedes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Red Bull | 51c | 956$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.89 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Mercedes | 52c | 659.75$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Red Bull | 53c | 378.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Mercedes | 47c | 300.83$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.44 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Mercedes | 60c | 166.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Mercedes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed Red Bull | 39c | 45.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…3b2fbacked Mercedes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Mercedes | 47c | 22.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- F1 Austrian Grand Prix: Red Bull vs. Mercedesthis page
- F1 Austrian Grand Prix: Ferrari vs. MercedesFerrari won
- F1 Austrian Grand Prix: McLaren vs. FerrariMcLaren won
- F1 Austrian Grand Prix: McLaren vs. MercedesMcLaren won
- F1 Austrian Grand Prix: McLaren vs. Red Bull McLaren won
- F1 Austrian Grand Prix: Red Bull vs. FerrariFerrari won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.