Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bfedda1f8def5bf1445d169ffce82b38e1f4144f94506f68f325f83afd263ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $175,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 17c | 16,934$2,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,836.35 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 16,869$2,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,471.31 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 5c | 7,159$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.95 | 263 | 19.8%52 W · 211 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 17c | 6,000$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.26 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…7d45backed Yes | 17c | 5,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 16c | 4,423$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.73 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 18c | 4,045$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.1 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…95a8backed Yes | 17c | 3,765$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Yes | 17c | 3,715$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.55 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd26f…fa03backed Yes | 17c | 3,701$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 20c | 3,128$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.71 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 16c | 2,607$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.17 | 255 | 44.7%114 W · 141 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 17c | 2,373$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.35 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…5657backed Yes | 17c | 2,034$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Yes | 15c | 1,862$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,807$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 17c | 1,724$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 17c | 1,378$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.26 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Yes | 17c | 1,300$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 17c | 1,250$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.87 | 120 | 20.8%25 W · 95 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 17c | 511.8$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.01 | 300 | 50.3%151 W · 149 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b13…e9f7backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…92f3backed Yes | 19c | 499.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 17c | 411.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Yes | 19c | 411.12$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd30a…70ebbacked Yes | 18c | 390.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 10c | 375$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63f9…0f1bbacked Yes | 18c | 305$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 17c | 299.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…e850backed Yes | 18c | 294.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 8c | 289$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 413 | 44.8%185 W · 228 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…fdc1backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 10c | 267.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…bfd7backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…d417backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…c344backed Yes | 18c | 183.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 19c | 183.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed Yes | 7c | 168.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…9a7ebacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…3842backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…3f53backed Yes | 17c | 135.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…0417backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…237dbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 191 | 45%86 W · 105 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…f407backed Yes | 17c | 105.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 18c | 105.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e85…443ebacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 18c | 99.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 17c | 92.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 19c | 83.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | +9.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Yes | 17c | 82.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed Yes | 17c | 80.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Yes | 17c | 77.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Yes | 17c | 76.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d79…2f2fbacked Yes | 18c | 72.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 16c | 70.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 17c | 65.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Fulham FC win on 2026-02-11?No won
- Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.