TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3397…3f53

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
61
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Tweets, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 55 out of 100; worst Ligue 1 at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST1643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+94.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+77.5%+$61.99
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$12.9
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+172.8%+$172.78
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+1,165%+$116.5
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+117.4%+$117.39
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+651.1%+$312.51
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+161.5%+$56.54
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+67.5%+$55.75
All 16 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.07
Will Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$41
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+70.3%+$14.07
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+300%+$123
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+104.1%+$51
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Will Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$23
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+37%+$36.62
Will Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+354.5%+$106.36
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 16 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+44.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$16.25
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$87.88
Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+69.5%+$24.59
Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+66.7%+$23.33
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+42.9%+$15
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+66.7%+$20
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 10 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$37.42
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+56.3%+$18.56
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+920.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+920.6%+$272.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-02-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+127.3%+$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.